Alberta’s very mild January is heading into a colder period by the end of the week. Interestingly, the weekly
average is up 19% week over week to $38.56/MWh with extreme wind and lower wind generation. There have
been no major deviations from forecasted generation this month and due to the warmer temperatures, January
demand is averaging below 2018. The forward curve remains relatively flat week over week with increases in
2019 offset by decreases in 2020 and 2021.
Alberta gas price increased by 17% this week averaging $1.76/GJ. The Canadian horizontal rig drilling count
reached a low of 53 in December from an average of 70 rigs per month. The January count is down 11% year over
year as well however, production overall for the year is expected to be ~2% higher.
The revised Indigenous consultation from the National Energy Board is due at the end of February which will lead
to determining if the Trans Mountain Expansion will be built. Many Indigenous leaders are also meeting this week
in Calgary to discuss the purchase of the project.