A relatively quiet week in Alberta with supply and demand close to forecast. Price averaged 33% less week over
week at $42.98/MWh. The forward curve is relatively flat week over week, however, CAL20 continues to decrease.
Q2 calls with Capital Power and TransAlta this week confirmed that coal-to-gas conversions will be happening in
some form. It is likely that the conversions will happen in asset turn arounds that are already planned.
Gas prices also decreased significantly this week averaging 52% less at $0.56/GJ. Western Canadian inventories
remain at a five year low. It is possible that storage field maintenance could be driving the weak injections,
however, this information is not publicly disclosed by TC Energy. If storage injections remain this low, it could be
supportive of higher winter prices.
With discussion about the potential to move the market cap in Alberta higher than $999.99/MWh, we look at
other markets with higher caps. This week, the Texas market hit their cap of $9000/MWh with extreme
temperatures across the state. The region’s supply cushion fell below 5% of total demand on the system.